多产品价格影响模型及其应用研究

A Study on Multiple-Product Price Influence Model and Its Application

在市场经济条件下,由于受市场供求关系和宏观经济政策的影响,产品的价格会发生波动。研究一种产品,特别是多种产品的价格变动对其他产品的价格影响,以及对综合价格指数的影响,就显得尤为必要。目前我国应用较多的价格影响模型主要是利用投入产出模型研究某些产品价格变动对其他产品价格变动的影响。本文试图将投入产出模型与计量经济模型结合起来,不仅研究某些产品价格变动对其他产品价格的影响,而且研究这些产品价格变动对综合价格指数(包括总产品价格指数、消费价格指数、投资价格指数)的影响预期,并结合北京市能源和水价格变动影响的案例进行实证分析,以期为多产品价格影响模型的应用提供方法论基础。

Under the condition of market economy, the price of products will fluctuate because of the relation between market supply and demand, as well as the influence of macro economic policies. Thus, studying how the price fluctuation of multiple products influences other products＇ price and Composite Price Index seems to be of critical importance. At present, Price Influence Model is mainly used to study the effects of some products ＇ price changes on others ＇ price fluctuations on the basis of Input-Output model. Besides, this paper will combine Input-Output model and econometric model, so as to study the effects of these fluctuations on the Composite Price Index （General Products Price Index, Consumer Price Index, Investment Price Index）. Additionally, in order to provide a theoretical basis for the application of Multiple-Product Price Influence Model, it makes an empirical analysis on the effects of price fluctuation of energy and water resource of Beijing.