基于多种模型的海南省国内旅游需求预测

Forecasting Domestic Tourism Demand of Hainan Province Based on Multiple Models

运用1988-2011年海南省国内游客数据,通过趋势外推模型对海南旅游需求进行预测。最终选择了具有较好预测精度的模型,并对2012-2020年海南国内旅游人数进行了预测。

This article mainly researches the application of trend extrapolation model to the forecast for Hainan＇ s travel demand. It empirically analyzes the yearly number of tourists to Hainan from 1988 to 2011. The diagnostic test shows that this model has good fitting results of forecasting the number of tourist to Hainan. Finally, this model is applied to predict the tourist number to Hainan from 2012 to 2020.