中国省际工业发展的空间格局演化及分析

Research on Development of Spatial Pattern of Manufacturing Industry in China

利用1978—2010年中国各省区实际人均工业增加值数据,采用探索性空间数据分析方法对省际工业发展的空间格局演化进行了研究,探测了各省区工业发展的集聚效应和辐射效应。研究发现,各省区工业发展存在着显著的空间自相关,且呈现上升趋势。从空间集聚的特征来看,高高型集聚和低低型集聚占主导地位。工业发展空间格局的变动与国家宏观发展战略和地区间工业的空间关联有关。作为工业发达省份的广东,由于工业发展模式和区域合作机制等原因而一直没有表现出显著的空间辐射效应,长三角地区则从1990年代以来已成为中国工业发展的重要增长极。

Taking advantage of exploratory spatial data analysis （ESDA）, we study the development of spatial pattems of manufacturing industry in different provinces in China during 1978-2010. We vividly display and analyse the space distribution feature, evolution trait and intemal rule of China＇ s industry development. We find that there is significant spatial autoeorrelation in China＇ s industry development while the correlation efficient keeps on increasing. High-High agglomeration and Low-Low agglomeration are dominant comparing to other agglomeration types. The development of spatial pattern is correlated to national development strategy and spatial linkage of regional manufacturing industry. As a developed province, Guangdong doesn＇ t have significant spatial radiate effect as expected due to its manufacturing industry development pattern and regional economy cooperation. The Yangtze River Delta area has become the most important growing pole in China since last 90s＇.