农业地区发展机制及其仿真模拟研究——以陕西澄城县为例

Development Mechanism and Simulation Research of Agricultural Area——A Case Study on Chengcheng County of Shaanxi

基于确保国家粮食安全的地域主体功能定位,剖析了农业地区发展机制,以陕西澄城县为例,构建了系统动力学模型,对农业地区的发展态势进行多情景分析与仿真模拟。设计了总量扩张型、功能协调型和传统发展型3种代表性方案。对比分析后,指出功能协调型方案是农业地区发展的最优选择。调整农业产业结构、推进农业与二三产业协调发展、拓宽农民增收渠道,是实现农业地区可持续发展的重要途径。

According to one of China＇s three main functional areas by developing content, agricultural area is the regional of better conditions for agricultural production, in order to provide agricultural products as the main function, to maintain and improve agricultural production capacity. Based on the main territorial function positioning to ensure national food security, the development mechanism of agricultural area was analyzed, the system dynamics model was established, and the development trends of agricultural was multi-scenario analyzed and simulated by taking Chengcheng County of Shaanxi as an example. Three types of representative program including aggregate expansion, functional coordination and traditional development model were optimized and comparatively analyzed. By comparative analysis, the functional coordination program is the optimal choice for the development of agricultural area. To realize the sustainable development of agricultural area, the Chengcheng County should adjust the industrial structure of agriculture, promote the synergistic development of agriculture and other industries, and broaden farmers＇ income sources.