基于风险评估的负荷参数对输送功率极限影响研究

On the Influence of Load Parameters on Transmission Power Limit Based on Risk Assessment

文章采用Monte Carlo法模拟负荷参数的随机变化,研究了随机抽样的负荷参数序列对输电功率极限影响的风险评估流程,建立了一整套能够反映负荷参数的不确定性对输电极限影响的风险指标体系,包括系统失稳概率及失稳损失风险、系统稳定概率及稳定收益风险、系统总收益风险。以某省电网输电断面为例,进行了仿真计算,得到风险指标,可为调度提供参考。

This research simulates random variation of load parameters through Monte Carlo method, studies the risk assessment process for the influence of random parameters on transmitting power lim- it, and establishes a set of risk indicator system to reflect the influence of the uncertainty of load parameters on power limit, which includes instability probability of the system and instability loss risk, stability probability of the system and stability income risk, and total income risk. The transmission section of a province＇s power network is taken as an example to obtain risk index through simulation calculation, which may provide reference for dispatching.