基于贝叶斯网络的工程项目质量风险管理

Research on Risk Management of Engineering Quality Based on Bayesian Network

提出基于贝叶斯网络的工程项目质量风险管理.首先,对工程质量形成过程中的风险因素进行识别,其次进行风险分析确定主要风险因素,构建贝叶斯网络结构.依据问卷调查中得到的数据和专家经验确定贝叶斯网络中的参数,以此为基础对工程项目质量进行风险评估、风险诊断,分析确定影响工程质量的关键风险因素.最后,依据分析得到的结果进行风险控制.

The quality of project is lifeblood of entire project, and there are a lot of risks in formation of quality. In order to effectively manage engineer quality risk, this paper proposes the quality risk manage ment model based on Bayesian network. Firstly,risk factors in formation of the quality are identified, then risks are analyzed to identify the main risk factors and to build Bayesian network structure. According to survey data and expert experience, the parameters of Bayesian network, and based on these, the risk assess ment and risk diagnostic for the quality of the project are carried out and to determine the key risk factors that affect quality of project are determined. Finally, the risk is controlled in accordance with the result.