基于案例模糊推理的应急物资需求预测研究

Forecasting Research of Emergency Supplies Demand Based on the Case of Fuzzy Reasoning

应急物资是应急救援工作的物质基础和基本保障,如何准确预测灾害应急物资需求量直接关系到突发事件应急救援工作顺利高效的开展.本文通过考虑案例对特征因素的隶属度,提出了运用Hebb学习规则调整特征因素权重值,以贴近度来计算案例间的相似度,寻求最佳相似案例,建立物资需求预测模型解决灾区应急物资需求问题的案例模糊推理方法.最后,以实例分析了该方法的可行性和合理性.该方法很好地解决了信息不精确条件下应急物资需求的预测,为应急决策者提供一定的理论参考依据.

Emergency supplies are the material foundation and basic guarantee for emergency rescue work. How to accurately forecast demand for disaster emergency supplies directly relate to the progress and efficiency of emergency rescue work. The case of characteristic factor＇s membership degrees were taken into consideration in the paper. And Hebb learning rules were applied to the paper to adjust the characteristic factorg value. The similarity between cases was calculated to find the best similar case. Case-fuzzy reason- ing method to solve the materials demand forecasting model has been given in the paper. Finally,the feasibility and reasonableness of the method were analyzed. This method solved emergency supplies demand forecast under imprecision information condition and provided a theory of reference for emergency decision makers.