差别化个人住房贷款政策对房价影响的实证分析——以泉州为例

The Empirical Analysis on the Effect of Differentiation of the Personal Housing Loan Policy on House Prices ——A Case of Quanzhou

近年来,宏观调控部门为抑制房价过快上涨,采取了一系列调控措施。其中,针对个人住房贷款的信贷调控政策主要体现在差别化管理上。本文以泉州市为例,选取受政策直接影响的利率浮动比率和住房面积结构两组数据与房价指标,运用协整检验与Granger因果关系检验方法进行实证分析,研究差别化住房信贷政策对房价走势的影响,并提出相应的政策建议。

In recent years, the macro control departments have adopted a series of control measures to curb excessive rise of house prices. Among them, the credit regulation policies aiming at personal housing loans have been mainly reflected on the differentiation management. Setting Quanzhou as an example, the paper selects two groups of data such as the interest rate floating ratio and housing area structure which is directly influenced by policies. Using co-integration test and Granger causality test method, the paper makes an empirical on the above date and the housing price index, studies the effect of differentiated housing credit policies on the trend of house prices, and puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.