摘要
川滇地区 MS≥ 6.0的地震多聚集成带、成团 ,与构造走向大体一致 .在南北地震带中、南段 ( 98°～ 1 0 5°E,2 1°～ 34°N)可划分成 7个小区 .每个小区历史上都发生过 MS≥ 7.0的强震 . 1 970年以来该区发生的 1 0次 7级以上地震 ,分别出现在 5个小区内 .经研究 ,这 5个小区中强震发生的时间与累积频度间均符合幂函数或指数关系 .通过内符检验 ,表明其对每个小区强震的中长期预报具有一定的意义 .
WT5BZ]The earthquakes with M S≥6.0 are often gathered into belts or clusters and are roughly consistent with tectonic structures. The middle south part (98°~106°E, 21°~34°N) of South North seismic zone can be zoned into seven small areas. There all were strong quakes with M S≥7.0 historically in each small area. Ten earthquakes with M S≥7.0 have occurred in this region since 1970 and they appeared in five small areas respectively. The relationships between occurrence time and cumulative frequencies of strong quakes in these five areas are shown to be an exponential distribution or power function. By examining the inner coincidence it is indicated that these relationships have definite significance to mid long term macroseismic prediction of each area.
出处
《地震学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2000年第4期345-351,共7页
Acta Seismologica Sinica
基金
中国地震局 95-0 4 -0 7-0 3 -0 1资助课题
关键词
强震活动
时间分布规律
中长期预报
内符检验
macroseismic activity
time distribution
mid long term prediction
examination of inner coincidence
