人民币升值能缓解美国对华贸易逆差吗——基于汇率不完全传递视角

Whether Appreciation of RMB can Buffer the U.S. Trade Deficit with China——From the Perspective of Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-through

本文首先从理论上分析汇率变动与贸易收支的关系,进而提出人民币升值与中国对美贸易顺差不断扩大之间的逻辑悖论关系,然后在汇率不完全传递理论基础上,从市场势力和跨国公司行为、通胀环境、央行货币政策等方面深入剖析人民币汇率不完全传递的原因,最后得出结论:要缓解中美贸易失衡,美国应改善内部经济结构、扩大内需,中国也应转变经济发展方式、加快产业结构转型与升级。

This paper first theoretically analyzes the relationship between exchange rate variations and trade balances, and proposes the logical paradox between the appreciation of RMB and China＇ s increasing trade surplus with U.S. Then this paper takes China＇ s stylized facts as an example to make deep analysis of the causes of incomplete RMB exchange rate pass-through, based on the theory of incomplete pass-through. For example, analyze its micro-determinants based on market power and behavior of multinational corporations. Analyze its macro-determinants based on inflationary environment and the credibility of governmental monetary policy. To alleviate the Sino-U.S. trade imbalances, the US should improve its internal economic structure, enlarge internal demand. Meanwhile, China should transform its economic development model, fasten the transforming and upgrading of its industrial structure and change its eco-nomic growth model which heavily relies on export.