地下水动态的混沌动力学特征及预报研究

Study on the Chaos Kinetic Characteristic and Forecasting of the Groundwater Movement

地下水位变化能够综合反映地下水演化的动态特征。选用禹州市2号井的地下水位时间序列作为研究对象,选取21 a的前1 500个数据,揭示其混沌动力学特征。运用G-P算法计算得关联维数d=1.67,最优嵌入维数m=5。采用复自相关法计算得时间延迟为78 d。采用C-C方法得时间延迟τ=78,m=5。最后计算最大Lyapunov指数λ1=0.010 3>0,表明地下水位时间序列具有混沌特性。同时,根据最大Lyapunov指数对地下水位进行预报,取得了较好的结果。

The dynamic characteristic of the groundwater evolvement can be synthetically reflected through the groundwater level dynamic move-ment. The time series of No. 2 well groundwater level inYuzhou City were selected as a study object, and 1 500 data of 21 years ago were chosen to open out chaos kinetic characteristic. By G-P arithmetic, the relation dimension d was calculated to be 1.67, and the best embedding dimension m equals 5. Adopting complex self-correlation method to calculate time-delay r, so τ = 78 d. Using C-C arithmetic to get τ = 78 and m = 5. Final-ly, the Maximum Lyapunov index was calculated, so λ1 =0. 010 3 〉 0, and it indicated the dynamic characteristic of the groundwater movement had chaos characteristic. Then a good result was got by forecasting the groundwater level based on Lyapunov exponents.