泥石流风险评价中若干问题的探讨

APPROACHES TO RISK ASSESSMENT OF DEBRIS FLOW

介绍了自然灾害风险评价的一般模式及泥石流危险性和泥石流区域易损性的评价方法。探讨了危险度的指标选择及其量值表达 ,以及风险度和易损度的异同。论述了风险评价和环境评价的关系 。

For debris flow,risk is generally expressed as the product of hazard and vulnerability.Moreover,hazard is commonly expressed as the product of magnitude(intensity)and probability(frequency).However at present,magnitude and probability of debris flow are difficult to obtain, and the estimates are still rather inaccurate and uncertain.Therefore,five precise environmental parameters,i.e.drainage basin area,main channel length,drainage basin relief,drainage density and active channel proportion significantly related to the magnitude and probability,are supplemented for the hazard assessment of debris flow.This paper also introduces the method of regional vulnerability assessment of debris flow and the difference between the definition of risk and vulnerability.Finally the relationships between the assessments of risk and environment are discussed.Risk assessment is a part of environment assessment,and environment assessment should contain risk,hazard and vulnerability assessments.