非齐次复合Poisson地震发生概率模型研究

Study of inhomogeneous compound Poisson probabilistic models for earthquake occurrence

依据现有地震发生概率模型合理性与局限性以及地震估计的基本思想提出五类非齐次复合 Poisson地震发生概率模型 ,阐述各模型的基本特点及可能实用的前提。以华北地区的地震序列为例大致模拟了不同阶段的地震发生概率水平 ,分析表明非齐次复合 Poisson地震发生概率模型更能反映地震发生的时间不均匀性。

In accordance with the advantages and disadvantages of the existed probabilistic models for earthquake occurrence and the fundamental principle of earthquake estimation, five types of inhomogeneous compound Poisson probabilistic models for earthquake occurrence are developed. The essential characteristics and possibly applied hypothesis of these models are explained. The analytical results of the compound Poison models based on North China earthquake data, indicate that inhomogeneous compound Poisson models may effectively estimate the non steady process for earthquake occurrence, however, homogenous Poisson models may not do it.