资源环境与21世纪地球科学发展趋势

RESOURCES ENVIRONMENT AND PROSPECTS IN THE EARTH SCIENCE FOR THE 21ST CENTURY

在分析了当代人口增长、资源环境态势与地球科学发展历史及地球科学研究发展趋势后指出 ,从人口、资源、环境、发展角度分析 ,2 1世纪地球科学研究将沿三大科学领域转变 :即由研究地球系统演化历史向研究地球系统过去、现在与未来的方向转变 ;由向地球系统索取各种自然资源为主 ,向以保护地球系统各种自然资源为主的方向转变 ;由研究地球系统天然地质作用及其产物向研究天然地质作用及其产物与研究人为地质作用及其产物并重的方向转变。从而提出 2 1世纪地球科学可能将沿着理论地球科学、管理地球科学和人为地球科学三大科学研究领域发展 ,并对中国社会经济可持续发展中地球科学创新体系作了探讨。

Based on the analyses of the present population growth, resource and environment situations, and the histories and trends in the development of the earth sciences, as viewed from population, resources, environment , and sustainable development, this paper predicts that the studies in the Earth science will be shifted into the following three fields: (1)from the exploration of the Earth’s history into the consideration of the Earth’s future; (2)from the exploitation of the Earth’s resources into the sustainable development; (3)from the studies of the natural geological processes into the investigations of the man made geological processes. It presents that the geosciences for the 21st century could be led to the developments in the three directions of theoretical, managing, and man made earth sciences, and deals with the initiative system of geosciences in the social and economical sustainable development of China.