全国年度地震重点危险区与地震相关性的统计模拟分析

STATISTICAL SIMULATION ANALYSIS OF THE CORRELA-TION BETWEEN THE ANNUAL ESTIMATED KEY REGIONS WITH A CERTAIN SEISMIC RISK AND THE EARTHQUAKES IN CHINA

用统计模拟的方法对 1 990～ 1 997年全国年度重点危险区与地震的相关性进行了分析 .由于统计模拟的方法有效地处理了地震和危险区的时空不均匀性 ,并且得到经运算 1 0 5次的统计模拟随机预报概率 ,将其与实际预报平均概率比较 ,得到较为客观的结果 .结果表明 :1 1 990～ 1 997年全国年度重点危险区的实际预报平均概率 ,比完全平均随机划定预报区的统计模拟平均随机概率高 0 .0 371 9;2考虑地震活动背景概率时 ,实际预报平均概率比危险区加权重的统计模拟平均概率高 0 .0 2 1 83;3将中国大陆依地震分布不均匀性分为新疆西部地区、西南地区和其它地区 3个区时 ,新疆西部地区的实际预报平均概率大大高出统计模拟平均随机概率 ,其差值为 0 .2 0

We have analyzed correlation of the annual key regions with a certain seismic risk and the earthquakes in China from 1990~1997 by the statistical simulation analysis method. The statistical simulation analysis method is effective to deal with space time heterogeneity of earthquakes and risk regions, after 10 5 count of the values of simulating random prediction probability have been got, the objective results have been got by comparing between the simulation prediction average probability and the practice prediction average probability. The results show: ① The practice prediction average probability for the annual seismic key risk regions in China from 1990~1997 is higher than the simulating prediction average probability by 0.03719 using the method of pure random simulating risk regions; ② The practice prediction average probability is higher than the simulation prediction average probability by 0.02183 using the method of simulating risk regions with the different probability based on the earthquake activity; ③ The practice prediction average probability is much higher than the simulating prediction average probability by 0.209 62 in west Xinjiang region using the method of dividing the Chinese Continent into the three regions: west Xinjiang region, southwest region of China and the other region.