渤海及黄海北部年极值冰厚概率分布的统计分析

Statistical Analysis of Probability Distribution of Extreme Ice Thickness in the Bohai and Northern Huanghai Seas

采用渤海及黄海北部后报 30 a最大冰厚样本序列 ,采用平稳二项随机过程模型和组合概率分析方法 ,统计得到了年最大冰厚概率分布 ,估计了模型参数 ,并推算了不同重现期的极值冰厚。推算结果表明 ,该模型较好地刻划了该海域年最大冰厚的概率特性 ,为渤海海域平台结构设计和可靠性分析提供了重要的荷载基础。

In this paper a stationary binomial random process model and combined probability analysis method are employed to analyze the sample series of annual maximum ice thickness (AMIT) in the Bohai and Huanghai Seas, which was obtained by numerical method. The probability distributions of AMIT and their parameters were obtained by statistical method, and the ice thicknesses with different return periods were deduced. These results show that the model gives a good description of the probability characteristics of AMIT, and provides an important basis for the design and reliability analysis of platform structures in this area.