武汉市淡水养殖气象预报技术研究

Research on Meteorological Forecasting Technique about Fresh Water Aquiculture in Wuhan City

根据武汉市2009～2011年的池塘溶解氧、水体温度数据和台站各气象要素,通过Matlab进行多元逐步回归分析构建武汉市水体温度预报预测模型和淡水养殖溶解氧量预报预测模型。结果表明,不同深度和不同天气条件下水温变化幅度不同,较深的层次和阴天水温变化较小;水温随气温变化而变化,但明显有滞后;水体温度的预报预测模型R2均在0.9以上,拟合效果很好。一般溶解氧在5～9月期间较低,低值一般出现在06:00～07:00,且较低值出现与天气相关,即闷热型天气突降大雨易导致溶解氧值降低;溶解氧量预报预测模型R2均在0.7以上,拟合效果良好。

Based on the water temperature data,dissolved oxygen data and meteorological element from Wuhan City during 2009-2011,a set of water temperature forecast and dissolved oxygen models about Wuhan fresh water aquiculture was constructed by means of matlab and multiple stepwise regression analysis.The results showed that the variation extent of water temperature changes with different depth and different weather conditions,a deeper level and more cloudy weather make the water temperature changes fewer;the water temperature varies with the air temperature,but it obviously lag behind.The R2 of the forecast models are all above 0.9,which proves that the fitting effects are very well.Results also show the dissolved oxygen is lowest in May to September.Low value generally appears at 06：00 to 07：00,and it relates to the muggy weather with bursting and heavy rain.The R2 of the forecast model are all above 0.7,which proves that the fitting effects are well.