新疆产业结构对城市化水平的影响研究

Study on Impact of Industrial Structure on the Level of Urbanization in Xinjiang

根据新疆1952～2010年城市化与产业结构的相关数据,对新疆的城市化、产业结构现状进行描述,运用相关分析方法分析了新疆城市化与产业结构的相互作用,借助多元线性回归模型及其相关检验,得出了城市化与产业结构的多元回归模型。结果表明,新疆近60年的城市化水平表现为上升趋势,但是20世纪50年代末～70年代初城市化波动比较大;产业结构顺序由当初的"一、二、三"转变为"二、三、一",以1991年为分界点;新疆城市化与产业结构的相互作用,表现为第一产业产值比重的下降,第二、三产业产值比重的上升推动城市化的进程,然而在不同的时间段,产业结构的作用有所变化;线性回归模型中剔除了第一产业产值比重自变量,用第二、三产业产值比重2个解释变量可以很好地反映城市化的进程,而且两者的系数分别为0.622 7、0.502 6,均为正值,表现为对城市化进程的推动作用。

According to the collection data of urbanization and industrial structure of Xinjiang from 1952 to 2010,the urbanization and the status quo of the industrial structure was described.Urbanization and industrial structure interaction was given by the correlation analysis.By means of a multiple linear regression model and its related inspection,multiple linear regression model of urbanization and industrial structure was obtained as follows： the performance of urbanization level in Xinjiang in recent 60 years showed an increasing trend,during the late 1950s to early 1970s,urbanization fluctuated obviously;industrial structure sequence was transfer from the original ＂ one,two,three＂ into ＂ two,three,one＂ with 1991 as the cut-off point;the interaction between urbanization and industrial structure showed a decline in the proportion of primary industry,the increase in the proportion of the output value of the second and tertiary industries to promote the process of urbanization,however in a different time period,the role of the industrial structure changed;the output value proportion of the secondary and tertiary industries could reflect urbanization process,and X2,X3 coefficients were 0.622 7,0.502 6,both were positive value,which can promote urbanization process.