从减灾角度分析江苏省粮食产量波动

A study of grain yield fluctuation in view of mitigation of meteorological disasters in Jiangsu

利用江苏省 1 949～ 1 992年的粮食产量、气象资料 ,分析了粮食单产和粮食播种面积对总产年际变化的影响以及技术水平因素、社会因素和气象因素 (尤其是气象因素 )分别对粮食单产年际变化的影响。结果表明 :引起江苏省粮食产量波动的主要原因是气象条件。在此基础上 ,从减轻气象灾害的角度分析了江苏省的粮食生产 ,并提出了相应措施。

Using grain-yield and meteorological dat a of Jiangsu Province, the impact of both the per-unit-area yield (PAUY) and pl anting area on interannual fluctuation of total grain output has been investigat ed, and contribution of technical levels, social factors and meteorological elem ents in particular to interannual variation of PUAY has been appraised. Results show that weather plays an important role in grain yield fluctuation. Correspond ing measures are put forward to mitigate meteorological disasters for achieving high grain yield.