月尺度降水可预报性的实验研究

Potential predictability of monthly precipitation over shandong province

利用信噪方差比探讨了山东省月尺度降水可预报性 ,发现 2～ 3月、9～ 1 0月不可预报 ,其它月份可预报性强。一般大气环流系统冬夏转换季节可预报性差。与 1 3个代表站预报评分进行比较 ,发现可预报性指数越高 ,则实际预报评分也相对较高 。

In this paper,the predictability of monthly precipitation over shandong province is studied.The results show that the probability of precipitation in february、march、septemper and october are small enough,but in othewise month are large enough,Besides,the probability and forcast mark have quite good corresponding,the probability is large than the forecast mark is high.