美国金融部门利润率变化与金融危机关系——基于金融结构变迁视角

Empirical Research on Relationship between Changes of the U.S.Financial Industry Profit Margins and Financial Crisis Based on Financial Structure Changes

以美国1963～2010年48年间的相关数据为基础,系统考察了金融结构变迁下的美国金融部门利润率变化与金融危机关系。研究表明,美国金融部门利润率的上升会导致其实体经济部门利润增长率下降;美国过度发达的金融部门已在制约其实体经济部门的发展,并逐步远离金融服务实体经济的职能。这使得美国的资源配置发生了本质的变化,优质资源不断流入金融部门,而相对应的实体经济部门逐渐空心化。美国金融部门与实体经济部门发展的"马太效应"使金融危机的爆发具备了条件。

Based on the 48 years data from 1963 to 2010 in the United States, this paper investigated the chan- ges of the U.S. financial sector profit margins and the financial crisis with the change of financial structure. This study indicates that the rising margin of the financial sector in the United States, will lead to a decline in the profit growth of the real economy sector; over - developed financial sector in the United States has restricted the develop- ment of the real economy sector and gradually away from its services functions to the real economy sector. This makes great changes in allocation of resources in the United States, quality resources continue to flow into the finan- cial sector, corresponding to the gradually hollowing real economy sector. ＂Matthew effect＂ on the development of the financial sector and the real economy sector makes the outbreak of the financial crisis not far away.