能源替代弹性与中国经济结构调整

The Elasticity of Energy Substitution and Restructuring of China’s Economy

调整产业结构和能源结构是中国转变经济增长模式的两个关键路径。然而,其可行性取决于能源与要素以及能源间的可替代性。本文运用超对数成本函数和AES替代弹性估算了中国要素间(资本、劳动、能源)以及能源间(煤炭、石油、电力)的相关替代弹性。结果表明,中国能源间的替代、互补效应较弱,能源的自价格弹性亦很低;而劳动对能源的替代性较强,资本和能源之间先替代后互补。因此,应建立以市场化价格机制为核心的能源替代战略,以及依托于发展低碳产业和节能产业的产业结构调整和优化来实现经济增长模式转变。

The critical paths of the transformation of the economic growth model in China are the industrial structure and the energy structure adjustment, however, its feasibility depends on substitutability between energy and factors, one kind of energy and another. This paper estimated the elasticity of substitution between factors （capital, labor, energy） and between energies （coal, petroleum, and electric power） using Translog cost function and AES elasticity of substitution. The results argue that the effects of substitution and complementary between energies are low, and price elasticity of energy demand is very low while the substitution of labor to energy is significant, the relationship between capital and energy is substitute in several yeas, but complement after then. Therefore, our suggestions are that energy substitution strategies should be established by market mechanism, and the model transformation of the economic growth should be fulfilled by developing low carbon industry and energy- saving industries to adjust and optimize industrial structure.