国际南极冰盖与海平面变化研究述评

INTERNATIONAL STUDY ON ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET AND SEA LEVEL CHANGE∶A REVIEW

海平面上升是全球变暖的主要后果之一。尽管有少数冰川学家认为 ,气候变暖并不能确保雪积累量的显著增加 ,同时可能出现冰流的突然变化 ,因此南极冰盖在未来海平面变化中的作用存在很大的不确定性。但近几十年来南极半岛气温的急剧上升 ,已使大量的冰架崩解。冰架崩解并不对海平面产生真正的影响 ,但反映出南极洲气候与冰川存在急剧变化的可能。

Sea level rise is one of the major results induced by global warming. In the future century time scale, global warming caused by greenhouse gases will continue, and sea level will keep rising. With respect to Antarctic ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise, many glaciologists suggest that, climate warming will brings more snowfall to Antarctica, and Antarctic ice sheet dynamic response to climate change is much more slow . Hence Antarctic Ice Sheet will mitigate sea level rise. However, some glaciologists have different opinions. They suggest that warming is not guaranted to increase snow accumulation greatly, and sudden changes in ice flow are to be expected from at least some ice sheets. These suggest great uncertainty regarding the role of Antarctica in future sea level change. Rapid regional atmospheric warming in Antarctic Peninsula has resulted in collapsing many ice shelves over the past several decades. This implies that there is the possibility of climate and glacial dramatic changes in Antarctica nevertheless their loss has had no real effect on sea level. Antarctic mass balance and sea level is of great concern in Antarctic and global change research.