国际产业格局的变化和调整

Trend of Global Industrial Development

在未来3-5年中,国际产业格局的变化趋势是:新兴市场经济的份额会持续上升,但是速度放缓;制造业回流发达国家的趋势在加强,然而其规模仍然没有超过产业流出的规模,净回流尚未发生。在服务业中,从发达国家外流的趋势仍在继续,速度有所放慢。中国制造的成本优势有所消减,但作为全球加工和制造中心的地位仍然会维持。过去几年中,全球金融危机及随后缓慢的经济复苏步伐没有逆转、也没有阻止全球化的进程。不论是制造业的企业,还是服务业的企业,仍然在全球范围内进行生产和经营活动的布局和安排。

The share of emerging market economies in the global manufacturing landscape will increase gradually in the coming 3-5 years,although the pace of growth will slow.Meanwhile,the re-shoring of manufacturing to the developed economies is increasing in terms of scale,but it cannot outweigh the reverse trend of industrial outflow and the net industrial outflow is yet to happen.In the tertiary sector, the hollowing-out process in industrial countries is continuing,although the pace is slowing.The cost advantage of Chinese manufacturing has been weakening,but China will maintain its position as one of the most important manufacturing centers in the world.The trend of global economic recovery in the wake of the financial crisis continues and has not held back the process of globalization.Both industrial and services enterprises are arranging their production and operation activities globally.