大国崛起下的中日经济关系:依赖互补与战略博弈

Sino-Japanese Economic Relations Against the Backdrop of Power Rise:Dependence,Complementation and Strategic Gaming

中日两国,比邻而居,交往源远流长。以甲午战争为契机,在近一个世纪的岁月中,日本获得了对中国的全面优势,历次战争的痛苦记忆使得胜败双方国民的心态迥异。改革开放后,特别是新世纪以来伴随着中国经济快速发展,两国经济相互依存日益加深。以中国综合国力迅速提升为标志的新大国崛起,逐步改变了百年来日方的优势地位。中国国民自信心的提升与没有清算历史的愤懑,对应的是日本国民心态从单纯的优越感转为失落、妒忌、恐惧交织的五味杂陈。日本日益依赖日美同盟的强化来平衡对华交往的失衡。日美应对中国崛起的战略同盟的强化,必将对中日经济关系构成冲击,也使局势大大超越了两国以及经济的范畴。中日经济关系不可避免地受到政治的影响,未来的发展存在着较大的不确定性。

There is a long history of exchanges between China and its neighbor,Japan.After the first Sino-Japanese war in the 1890s,Japan had won an absolute advantage over China,which last for almost one century,during which the painful memories of wars had led to distinct mentalities of the people in the two nations.While the two economies have become increasingly interdependent since China started its reform and opening up in late 1970s,especially since the beginning of the 21st century,Japan' s dominant position has been challenged by the rise of China.Corresponding to the improvement in China's national confidence and the resentment for Japan's failure to face squarely to its history of invasion,the Japanese people have had their sense of superiority give place to a more complicated combination loss,jealousy and fear.While the two economies are becoming more interdependent,Japan has become more dependent on China and,therefore,it has become more vigilant against China,leading to intensified bilateral strategic gaming.Japan is increasingly relying on strengthened Japan-US alliance to hedge against its relations with China,but such a strategic alliance targeted at China's rise is set to have an impact on Sino-Japanese economic relations,driving the issue beyond the control of the two countries and making it subject to the influence of non-economic factors. The Sino-Japanese economic relations would be inevitably subject to the influence political factors and the future will be full of uncertainties.