中韩经济关系:不对称依赖及其前景

Sino-South Korea Economic Relations:Asymmetrical Interdependence and Prospects

中韩建交20年,两个曾经敌对的国家发展了全方位的双边联系,特别是在经济方面,已经形成了相互依赖,韩国经济对中国的依赖度远高于中国经济对韩国的依赖度,属于典型的不对称性依赖。相互依赖限制了中韩经济领域矛盾的升级,但可能引发韩国对中国的警惕,埋下进一步冲突的隐患。韩国担忧不对称依赖可能成为中国的权力资源,于己不利,试图通过与欧美签署FTA等降低对中国的经济依赖。在既定贸易条件下,韩国对中国的不对称依赖可能已经接近或达到峰值。在新政府的带领下,中韩经济关系向何处去,值得关注。

Since the normalization of their bilateral relationship in 1992,China and South Korea,which used to be foes,have developed comprehensive bilateral links,especially in the economic area.They have been important trade partners to,and interdependent on,each other while South Korea depends much more deeply on China than China does on South Korea,a typical asymmetrical interdependence. Interdependence prevents bilateral trade conflicts from escalating,but such an asymmetrical interdependence makes South Korea cautious and sows the seed of conflict in the future.South Korea is worried that the asymmetrical interdependence might be manipulated by China to jeopardize the interest of South Korea.Therefore,it has signed FTA with the US and EU to diversify its export destinations and lessen the risks of over-dependence on China.Given the current trade conditions, South Korea's economically asymmetrical interdependence on China might have been close to the peak or even already peaked.With the leadership of the new government in South Korea,it is noteworthy where the Sino-South Korean economic relations would evolve.