1989-2009年间我国交通运输能耗变化关键驱动因素分解研究

Decomposition of Factors Determining the Trend of Transportation Energy Consumption in China(1989-2009)

在构建我国交通运输能耗影响因素分解模型的基础上,采用因素分解方法分析过去20年间(1989-2009)5种驱动因素对我国交通运输能耗变化的影响,识别出关键驱动因素。研究结果显示,能耗增长的主要原因是社会经济发展和运输结构恶化,而交通运输能源强度因素和经济的交通运输依存度因素是促进节能的主要影响因素,人口因素对能耗变化没有显著影响。最后,结合各关键因素的未来发展趋势,提出结构优化最具节能潜力,应成为未来交通运输节能降耗政策设计的重要方向。

Based on the construction of transportation energy consmnption model, the LMDI technique is applied to estimate the relative contribution of five variables to the change in transportation energy consumption over the period 1989 - 2009. The results are best interpreted as an estimate of the growth in energy consumption resulting from the change in the relevant factors （e. g. per capita GDP and transportation structure） ; energy intensity and per GDP transportation volume are regarded as the main contributors of transportation energy saving; population shows no significant effect on transportation energy consumption.