金融交易与货币流通速度的波动

Financial Transactions and the Fluctuations of Velocity of Money Circulation

本文从实体经济和金融资产两个部门考察了近年中国的货币需求的变化。给定实际收入和利率,金融市场交易的活跃会增加货币的交易需求,这样货币流通速度会随金融交易活跃程度而反向变动。经验结果显示,2006年以后,36%的新增广义货币(M2)是由于股票交易额大幅上升引起的。这意味着新增货币不仅要满足实体交易增长的需要,还要满足金融交易增长的需要,超出实体经济增长的货币供应不会全部体现为通货膨胀。这一结果一定程度上解释了近年我国货币流通速度的波动和下降趋势,以及通货膨胀与货币增长关系不稳定的现象。这意味着货币政策的调整不应仅考虑商品市场价格变动,而忽视资产市场的交易需求。本文的结论还验证了,实体经济内部农业和非农部门的货币需求并没有显著差异,传统的"货币化"理论已不足以解释近十年中国货币流通速度的变动。

This paper studies the money demand behaviors in the real economy and financial sectors. Increase in the value of asset exchanges can promote the transactions demand for money independently of fluctuations in real output and interest rates, thus the velocity of money circulation measured by the real output or the value of transactions on goods market will fluctuate inversely with the value of asset exchanges. Empirically, we demonstrate that, about 40% of the monetary expansion is expected to meet the needs of the growing value of asset exchanges. This implies the growth of money demand will exceed that of real output or real transactions. The overall money supply exceeding the real economic expansion will not lead to inflation pressure. This provides an explanation to the fluctuations of money circulation velocity in recent years, and the lack of stable relationship between inflation and monetary expansion. Thus, monetary authorities should accommodate both inflation in consumer price and the transactions demand in asset exchanges. The results also verify that, the money demand behaviors of the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors are not significantly different. Thus, the traditional ＂monetization theory＂ can＇ t be used to explain the fluctuations of the velocity of money circulation in the past ten years.