基于不完全信息多阶段对策的复杂电网连锁故障防御模型

A Model to Defense Cascading Failures in Complex Power Grid Based on Multistage Games With Incomplete Information

为防御由连锁反应故障引发的大停电事故提出一种基于不完全信息多阶段对策的复杂电网连锁故障防御模型。鉴于无法掌握连锁故障各个阶段的事故状态信息,提出负载严重程度和母线电压跌落严重程度表征"不完全信息"情况下元件故障对系统造成的影响。结合对策理论,模型对连锁反应故障不同阶段的电网进攻方当前策略进行辨识并求取其支付函数。根据进攻方支付函数的大小,防御方通过计算直流潮流灵敏度矩阵和负荷节点电压灵敏度矩阵采取相应的防御策略,同时对电网各元件进行快速越限系数计算,预测进攻方下一轮策略。模型为连锁故障初级阶段的调整措施和快速反应阶段的紧急控制措施提供了直观依据。算例仿真验证了该模型的准确性和有效性。

To defense the blackout caused by cascading failures, based on multistage games with incomplete information a model to defense cascading failures in complex power grid is proposed. Seeing that the failure-state information in different stages of cascading failures cannot be mastered, it is proposed to characterize the affects of component faults on power grid under incomplete information by the severity degree of overloading and the severity degree of voltage drop. Combining with game theory, the proposed model recognizes the offensive side＇s current strategy during different courses of cascading failures and gets the payoff fimction. According to payment function values, the defensive side takes appropriate defense strategy by calculating the DC power flow sensitivity matrix and load node voltage sensitivity matrix, meanwhile, the overloading coefficients of power grid components are rapidly calculated to predict the offensive side＇s strategy in the next round. The proposed model provides direct and accurate evidences for adjustment measures at the initial stage of cascading failures and emergency control measures at the rapid spreading stage. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed defense model are validated by case simulation.