浙江省肺结核发病空间分布模式空间自相关分析

Spatial distribution patterns of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Zhejiang province:spatial autocorrelation analysis

目的分析浙江省肺结核发病的空间分布模式,为肺结核防治提供理论依据。方法收集2004年浙江省90个县(市、区)肺结核发病资料,以1∶25万浙江省县界电子地图作为基础地图,采用ArcGIS 9.2空间统计模块进行空间自相关分析全局G统计量和局部G统计量。结果 2004年浙江省肺结核发病率全局G统计量为0.0734,Z值为2.63,P=0.008 4,提示肺结核发病率为非随机分布,存在聚集区;其中Z(Gi)>1.96地区包括金华市兰溪市、衢州市衢江区、柯城区、杭州市江干区、台州市玉环县、丽水市青田县、温州市洞头县、永嘉县、平阳县、瑞安市、龙湾区、鹿城区和瓯海区,这些区域形成肺结核高发病率聚集区域;而Z(Gi)<-1.96地区包括宁波市江东区、江北区、北仑区、鄞州县、镇海区、海曙区、奉化市、余姚市、慈溪市和象山县,这些区域形成肺结核低发病率的聚集区域。结论浙江省肺结核空间分布非随机分布,存在明显的聚集性。

Objective To explore the spatial distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis in Zhejiang province, and to provide evidence for control and prevention of pulmonary tuberculosis. Methods The data of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in 90 counties（districts） in Zhejiang province in 2004 were obtained from the Tuberculosis Surveillance System. Based on the same county field in digital map and pulmonary tuberculosis incidence database, digital map of ZheJiang province was interrelated with the database of province pulmonary tuberculosis incidence to establish Zhejiang geo- graphic information system database. The spatial autocorrelation with Getis-Ord Gi statistics and local Getis-Ord Gi statis- tics were analyzed with ArcGIS 9. 2 software. Results With Getis-Ord Gi statistics, the spatial clustering of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in 2004 in Zhejiang province was identified（Getis-Ord Gi= 0.073 4, P = 0.008 4）. Local GetisOrd Gi statistics analysis showed that there were statistically significant hotspots in Wenzhou region, and there were statistically significant coldspots in Ningbo region in 2004. Conclusion Pulmonary tuberculosis in Zhejinag province distributed unrandomly and clustered geographically. The corresponding prevention and control measures should be made according to the geographical distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis.