气候变化背景下水资源脆弱性研究与展望

Advances and Future Prospects of Research in Water Resources Vulnerability Under Climate Change

论述了气候变化背景下水资源脆弱性概念、内涵及其与适应性管理的联系;综述了水资源脆弱性定量评估方法,包括指标权重法、函数及综合指标法等;介绍了减少水资源脆弱性的适应对策研究。分析表明,联系水资源供需矛盾的水资源脆弱性既有自然变化脆弱性的一面,又有气候变化影响导致水资源供需关系发生变化以及旱涝灾害影响加剧水资源脆弱性的问题。关键是要识别影响水资源脆弱性变化的主要调控变量,通过应对气候变化的适应性对策研究,最大限度地减少水资源脆弱性。未来气候变化背景下水资源脆弱性研究,将在进一步发展脆弱性影响与评估基础上,逐步转到适应性水资源管理与对策的研究。

This paper addresses issues on water resources vulnerability under climate change.The concept and connotation of water resources vulnerability and the corresponding adaptive management are presented.The quantitative evaluation methods of water resources vulnerability,mainly include the index weight method,function and integrated indicator methods.The water resources vulnerability not only has natural variability but also is affected by changes in relationship between water supply and demand resulted from climate change and the impacts of droughts and floods.The key issue is to identify the governing variables which have main influence on water resources vulnerability.For future perspective,study on water resources vulnerability will go to adaptive management.