不同气候情景下华北平原蒸发与径流时空变化分析

Spatio-Temporal Changes of Evaporation and Runoff in the North China Plain Under Different Climate Scenarios

基于中国气象局国家气候中心生成的IPCC第四次评估报告中23种气候模式的情景集成数据,采用Schreiber公式和Thornthwaite方法计算实际蒸发和径流,分析了2001—2060年SRES A1B、A2和B1这3种情景下,华北平原气温、降水、蒸发与径流的时空变化。结果表明:未来华北平原气温呈升高趋势,且冬半年升温幅度大于夏半年;降水亦呈增加趋势,而冬半年降水增加幅度小于夏半年;与此相应,华北平原蒸发和年径流呈增加趋势,增幅和空间差异随时间推移而增大,到2041—2060年蒸发将上升7.1%～9.4%,径流将增加8.7%～10.7%。

The North China Plain（NCP） is an important region for food production,thus projection of changes in water cycle such as evaporation and runoff in the future are crucial to sustainable water resources utility and food security.Based on the integrated predictions of 23 climate models in the fourth assessment report of IPCC,annual evaporation and runoff were computed using the Schreiber-Thornthwaite method and then the spatio-temporal changes of air temperature,precipitation,evaporation and runoff were analyzed during 2001-2060 under the SRES A1B,A2 and B1 scenarios.The temperature will increase with higher rate in winter than summer season;whereas precipitation will increase with higher rate in summer than winter season.It is revealed that annual evaporation and runoff are acceleratively increasing and result in more spatial variability.Changes of evaporation and runoff can reach 7.1%9.4% and 8.7%-10.7%,respectively in 2041-2060 relative to 1971-2000.