关于西部山区公路建设项目的交通量预测方法研究

On Forecast Method of Traffic Flow in Highway Construction Project in the Western Mountainous Areas

根据西部地区公路的实际情况，提出交通量由自然增长的趋势型交通量及道路行车条件改善引起的诱增交通量和转移交通量三部分组成。采用弹性系数法并结合安康岚皋至陕渝界公路工程可行性研究中的交通量预测，验证该预测方法的合理性。

Based on the actual highway situation in the western regions, the paper puts forward that the traffic flow is composed of the following three parts - - the trend traffic flow in natural growth, the induced traffic flow caused by improving driving conditions and the transfer traffic flow, in this paper, the proposed methods are finally verified to be reasonable by elastic coefficient method, combined with traffic flow forecast in highway engineering feasibility study on Ankang LanGao to boundary between Shaanxi and Henan.