实时预报调度下确定水库汛限水位上限值的研究(英文)

Research on upper limit value of flood control water level in real-time forecast operation

提出了实时预报调度下,综合考虑洪峰预报误差、峰现时间预报误差和下泄能力误差综合影响下的风险约束法,和实时预蓄预泄法相结合的双约束法,得出根据风险约束法推导出的防洪限制水位,作为防洪限制水位的下限值确定的主要依据之一,并将此水位作为实时预蓄水预泄水法有效预泄期末的水位,来确定防洪限制水位的上限值.并运用到罗湾水利枢纽的根据历史水文资料随机虚拟的实时预报校核洪水和1983年的实时预报洪水.结果表明,从防洪风险的角度来分析,完全可以将防洪限制水位的上限值提高到369.82m,水库防洪都是安全的.

The risk constraint method that comprehensively considers the error in flood peak forecast, the error in flood peak time forecast and the error in discharge capacity and the double constraint method that combines real-time pre-storage and pre-discharge method are presented in the paper. We conclude that the flood control water level can be deduced based on risk constraint method and it can be one of the evidences in determining the lower limit value of flood control water level, which can be regarded as the water level at the end of the available pre-discharge time utilizing the pre-storage and pre-discharge method. Io, return, this method can be used to determine the upper limit value of flood control water level. The methods have been applied to Luowan Reservoir for real-time forecast checking flood and the real-time flood forecast based on previous hydro-meteorological data and the utilization of random sampling method. The results reveal that ,from the perspective of flood prevention risk, the flood control water level can be increased to 369.82 m, under which circumstance the dam is safe.