再论“小二胎”现象:区域比较的视角——以H省三个典型乡镇为例

A Further Study of the Late Second Childbearing by A Comparison Among 3 Towns in H Province

本文利用H省三个典型乡镇的访谈资料与统计数据以区域比较的视角对"小二胎"现象进行了再研究。研究结果表明,三镇小二胎现象具有诸多共性,但也存在不少差异。各地都存在较强的男孩偏好和二孩偏好,加之政策环境在2002年的变化,使得此后各地都普遍产生小二胎现象。但是由于村庄社会结构的不同,男孩偏好和二孩偏好程度不一,所以各地的小二胎现象又表现出一定差异。小二胎现象不仅大幅提高了超生率和生育率,而且推高了出生性别比,因此应该引起相关部门的高度重视。在农民生育观念没有彻底转变的情况下,国家要赋予基层干部与政策要求相匹配的治理手段,以稳定我国来之不易的低生育水平。针对各地的区域差异,要采取分类治理的方略。

based on the data from the interviews and statistics of 3 towns in H Province, this paper studies on late second childbearing in the perspective of regional comparison. The analytical results indicate that late second childbearing in the 3 towns have much in common and some differences in the same time. All 3 towns showed strong son preferenee：and twochildren preference, and with the policy loosening in family planning in 2002, a large number of late second child are born since then. However, as the differences in social structure, son preference and two-children preference in the villages, the late second childbearing in the 3 towns shows differences too. The late second childbearing greatly raised the unauthorized fertility rate and the general fertility rate, and caused further abnormal high sex ratio at birth. Considering the lag of the peasants fertility viewpoints change, we suggest that the state should entrust grassroots cadres more governance means to keep the low birth level, and differentiated policy or governance means should be used in terms of the regional differences.