1982-2010年中国在业人口高龄化研究

A Study of the Rapid Aging of Working Population in China: 1982-2010

由于人口生育率的急剧下降,中国人口不仅迅速老龄化,面临着"人口红利"消失等问题,同时还出现在业人口迅速高龄化的情况。导致在业人口高龄化的主要原因是人口年龄结构的变化,同时与劳动参与程度的改变、教育发展等因素有关。到目前为止,在业人口高龄化主要是出现在农民与工人两个职业中,其他职业的情况相对不太明显。随着长期的低生育水平的延续,在业人口高龄将继续严重,并且将从以农民、工人两个职业为主,转变为全面的在业人口高龄化。此现象对中国今后的社会经济发展有什么影响,值得深思。

with the rapid dropdown of fertility rate, China is not only facing the rapid population aging and the disappearance of the population dividend, but also experiencing rapid aging in working population. The main cause of the aging of working population is the change of age structure, and the increasing labor participation rate and education development have also caused the aging of working population. The aging is relatively serious in the occupations such as farming workers and industrial workers. With the long continued low fertility rate, the working population is to keep aging and the aging will diffuse from the farming workers and industrial workers to all the sectors of the working population. It is worthwhile to evaluate the effect of this continual aging of working population on the social and economic development in China.