快速城市化下库尔勒市人均粮食安全变化分析——基于耕地-粮食-人口系统分析

Analysis of Food Security under the Rapid Urbanization in Korla City——Based on Farmland-Food-Population System Analysis

[目的]揭示快速城市化下人均粮食安全的空间分布变化特征及原因,指出城市化给区域耕地-人口-粮食带来了一定压力,表现为区域人均粮食安全指数的波动。[方法]运用人均粮食安全指数算法、Cobb-Douglass生产函数,以乡镇为单位,基于耕地-粮食-人口系统动态分析。[结果]2000～2009年,库尔勒市耕地面积呈增加趋势,但粮食播种面积呈降低趋势,人均粮食安全系数整体上呈基本稳定→缓慢降低→递增的变化趋势,Cobb-Douglas生产函数表明,播种面积降低、人口增加将成为未来粮食总产量变化的主要因素。[结论]库尔勒市在现有耕地和粮食产量条件下,要依靠高科技技术和增加投入,来提高耕地生产水平,确保粮食生产安全。

[ Objective ] This research aims to reveal the spatial distribution variation characteristics of per capita food security and its causes under the rapid urbanization in Korla City. It is pointed out that the urbanization has brought about a certain pressure on the area of arable land, the human population and grain, which has shown a regional per capita food security index fluctuation. [ Method ] The index of per capita food security and Cobb - Douglas production function were employed in this research. The villages and towns were taken as units to carry out dynamic analysis of the relationship between the farmland, food and human population. [ Result ] From 2000 to 2009, the cultivated land in Korla showed an increasing tendency, but the farmland used for sowing food crops was in the opposite tendency. On the whole, the trend of per capita food security index is ： basic stability ~ slow decrease --~ slow rise by degrees. Cobb - Douglas production function showed that the total grain sown area will be the next major factor in producing change. [ Conclusion ] In view of the present arable land area and grain yield, high technology and more investment should be depended on to increase the production level of the farmland, thus ensuring the food security in the future.