山西省“十二五”时期城乡居民消费预测研究——基于可变参数模型

The Forecasting Research on Consumption of Shanxi Residents in“The Period of the Twelfth Five-Year”

本文以山西居民消费问题作为研究对象,首先对山西省消费现状及其发展趋势进行了基本统计分析,尔后对山西城乡居民消费水平的影响因素建立了模型,并在此基础上对"十二五"时期山西城乡居民的消费水平进行了预测,以确定与规划值之间的差距程度,并针对研究结论对如何提高山西居民消费水平提出了相应的政策建议。

This article takes the Shanxi residents＂ consumption as object of study, first to analyze the Shanxi consumption status and development trend, and then build econometric model of influence factors to consumption, and forecast Shanxi urban and rural residents＂ consumption level of the ＂The period of the Twelfth Five-Year, in order to determine the gap between predictive value and planning value. In the end, putting forward the corresponding policy recommendations for improving consumption level based on research conclusions.