摘要
以本溪市 195 5~ 1996年的猩红热、流脑、肝炎和伤寒逐月发病的数据为根据 ,利用混沌动力学中“相空间技术”,对疾病流行过程进行能量谱分析及混沌分析 .发现流脑和伤寒的流行过程是混沌的 ;并得到本溪流脑和伤寒数据的混沌迭代模型 .在模型参数变化范围内 ,流脑经历了周期状态、混沌状态、吸引不动的稳定状态之间的转换 ;伤寒经历了周期状态、混沌状态之间的转换 ;这表明疾病流行过程是复杂的 .给出疾病流行的“阈值”,以控制其流行涨落 .求出流脑的关联分维是2 .82 1,伤寒的关联分维是 3.0
On the basis of the monthly reported cases of scarlet fever,epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis,viral hepatitis and typhoid in Benxi city in the periods195 5 - 19 96 ,and the reconstruction technique of phase space of Chaotic Dynamics,the time series,the phase portrait and Poincare section were made.It was found that the epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis and typhoid were chaotic.The chaotic m odels of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis and typhoid have been obtained.The correlation dimension of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis was2 .82 1,and the correlation dimension of typhoid was 3.0 87.
出处
《高校应用数学学报(A辑)》
CSCD
北大核心
2000年第3期333-338,共6页
Applied Mathematics A Journal of Chinese Universities(Ser.A)
基金
国家教委博士点基金!(970 1 4 51 0 )
辽宁省自然科学基金!(962 1 77)