基于偏离—份额法的城市产业结构分析——以湖北省随州市为例

City Industrial Structure Analysis Based on Shift-Share Method——A Case Study in Suizhou,Hubei Province

对城市的产业结构及竞争力进行合理的分析,找出具有相对竞争优势的产业部门,对于其产业结构调整与区域经济发展具有重要意义。基于偏离-份额分析方法,对湖北省随州市2000—2010年间的三次产业发展变化的总体及工业和服务业中的31个具体行业进行SSM分析,从而对三次产业结构的总体结构与发展状况做出评价,也对随州市各具体行业按区域竞争优势、竞争力分量等指标进行了分类。实证研究结果表明,随州市三次产业结构基本合理,产业竞争力弱胜于湖北省平均水平;随州市大多数工业行业处于快速上升阶段,构成了其区域优势。提出了优化第二产业增长、重点发展第三产业以及扶持特定重点行业的政策建议。

Reasonable analysis on urban industrial structure and competitive power,and recognition of industrial departments with relative competitive advantages are so important for the adjustment of industrial structure and regional economic development.Based on Shift-Share analysis method,this paper analyzes the general conditions of development and changes of tertiary industry between 2000 and 2006 in Suizhou as well as 31 concrete industries of industry and service industry so as to assess the general structure and development conditions of tertiary industry and classifiy the concrete industries in Suizhou in accordance with regional competitive advantages and competitive power.The result shows that Suizhou＇s tertiary industry structure was basically reasonable,its industrial competitive power was a little higher than the average level in Hubei province;many industrial sectors in Suizhou were in the rapid growth stage,which forms the regional comparative advantage.This paper finally proposes three policy suggestions on how to optimize secondary industry development,prioritize tertiary-industry and support the development of specific important industries.