改革退休年龄的时机和方案设计——基于陕西省基本养老保险省级统筹运行效果分析

The Research on the Time to Reform the Age of Retirement and Scheme Designing:Based on the Effect of Shaanxi's Performance of Management of Social Security Funds at Provincial-level Authorities

本文从陕西省养老保险省级统筹基金的运行效果入手,说明在现行制度下未来养老基金缺口较大。通过设计改革退休方案,结合未来陕西的退休人口数量,运用定量的分析手法来论证改革退休年龄方案的可行性,希望通过推迟参保职工的退休年龄来增加缴费人数、降低在职人口抚养老年人口的系数,这种减少未来养老金支付压力的做法主要是依靠退休年龄的延迟从而达到纵向的扩面,实现调整,通过循序渐进的方式来逐年缓解基金缺口。

Based on the Shaanxi＇s performance of management of social security funds at provincial -level authorities, the paper presents the future gap between pensiong demand and supply. Through the designing of the reform scheme and combined with future retirement, retired Shaanxi population, we prove the the feasibility of the reform of the retirement age by using the quantitative analysis methods. The reform aims to increase the number of payers, improve staff labor population factor and reduce the elderly dependency radio. By doing these, the future demand of pension will decrease and the gap will be met.