摘要
本文借助VAR模型、格兰杰因果检验、方差分解，对鄞州区1985—2011年消费水平、消费结构、投资结构、产业结构和经济增长之间的动态影响关系进行实证研究，得出鄞州地区经济增长的格兰杰因果关系，并分析了不同结构对经济波动的影响程度和响应时间。为鄞州政府促进经济增长、制定政策提供借鉴。
In this paper, by means of VAR model, Grainger Granger causality test, variance decom- position, has empirically researched to the dynamic relationship among consumption level, consumption structure, investment structure, industry structure and economy growth in Yinzhou District from 1985 to 2011. The Grainger causal of relation economic growth on Yinzhou is concluded. Influence and response time of different structure on economic are analysed. For the government of Yinzhou, reference is provided for promoting economic growth, and making policy.
关键词
扩大消费
经济增长
VAR模型
expanding consumption
economic growth
VAR model
