分类型能源消费与中国经济增长关系研究

Study on the Relationship between Disaggregated Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in China

能源类型与能源消费结构的异质性和经济系统的复杂性使得能源消费与经济增长之间的关系没有统一的结论。针对上述异质性和复杂性问题,利用线性Toda-Yamamoto格兰杰因果检验和非线性Diks-Panchenko格兰杰因果检验,分别检验了中国1953～2008年的总能源消费、煤炭消费、石油消费、电力消费与经济增长之间的关系,并得出能源政策的调整会直接影响中国的经济增长,降低能源消费会对中国经济产生一定冲击的结论。

Due to the heterogeneity of energy types and energy consumption patterns, as well as the complexity of the economic system, there is no uniform conclusion on the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. To solve the problem of the heterogeneity and complexity, linear Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test and nonlinear Diks-Panchenko Granger causality test are used to examine the relationship between the total energy consumption, coal consumption, oil consumption, electricity consumption and economic in China from 1953 to 2008. This paper concludes that the adjustment of energy policy will directly affect China＇s economic growth, and the implementation of energy conservative policy will have some impact to China＇s economy.