资源诅咒命题在中国大陆是否成立——基于省级面板数据的回归分析

Is the Proposition of Resource Curse True on China's Mainland? Regression Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

运用省级面板数据,对资源诅咒命题进行实证检验,结果显示,资源价格的波动对于资源诅咒命题是否成立具有决定作用。资源价格增长率与资源对经济增长的促进作用呈现正相关性。当资源价格增长率小于零时,资源对经济增长产生抑制作用,资源诅咒命题成立;反之,资源诅咒命题不成立。因此,为保持经济增长,中国要牢牢控制储量丰富的稀土等资源的定价权;加强石油产业与钢铁产业的组织性与谈判能力,争取石油、铁矿石的定价权;加强石油等进口资源的战略储备;加强新能源产业的建设;资源生产大省应促进产业结构的多元化。

The proposition was analyzed by use of China＇s province-level panel data and the change of resource price played an important role in the proposition.There was a positive correlation between growth rates of natural resources＇ prices and the promotion effect of resources on economic growth.When the growth rates of natural resources＇ prices were less than zero,resources retarded economic growth,and the proposition of resource curse was true.On the contrary,the proposition was false.Therefore,in order to maintain economic growth,China should impose strict controls on the pricing power of rare earth and other rich resources.The organization and negotiation ability of the oil industry and the iron steel industry should be strengthened to contest for the pricing power of oil and iron ore.The administration should raise strategic reserves of imported resources and strengthen the construction of new energy industry.A province with affluent resources should vary industrial structures.