经济周期协动性的影响因素分析——基于中国与其东亚贸易伙伴的实证研究被引量：3

Analysis of the Influential Factors of Business Cycle Co-movements: An Empirical study on China and its Trade Partners of East Asia

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摘要影响中国(大陆)与其贸易伙伴之间的经济周期协动性变化的因素主要包括双边贸易强度、产业内贸易、外国直接投资、金融开放度、产业结构相似度、财政政策协调、货币政策协调、汇率政策等。运用混合最小二乘法对1992-2009年中国(大陆)及其贸易伙伴共14个国家和地区的面板数据进行实证分析,结果显示:中国与其他亚洲经济体的协动性主要受到产业内贸易强度和产业结构相似度这两个因素的影响。因此,政府应该有针对性地调整相关政策以更好地应对外部冲击。 The influence factors to business cycle co-movements between China and its trade-partners of East Asia include bilateral trade,Intra-industry trade,FDI,financial openness,similarity of industrial structure,fiscal policy coordination,monetary policy coordination,exchange rate volatility and so on.We use pool OLS method to analyze the panel data from 1992 to 2009 of China and its trade partners,which include 14 countries.The results show that intra-industry trade and similarity of industrial structure are the most important factors to business cycle co-movements.The government can adjust relevant policies to respond external shocks better.

作者任希丽张兵李可爱

机构地区南开大学经济学院

出处《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》 CSSCI 北大核心 2013年第3期56-66,共11页 Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics

基金中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(NKZXB10029) 天津市社科规划项目(TJZZ10-100)

关键词经济周期协动性产业内贸易产业结构相似度 business cycle co-movements intra-industry trade similarity of industrial structure

分类号 F113 [经济管理—国际贸易]

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