摘要
委内瑞拉的权力过渡政治进程远未结束,权力过渡期的突发事件或重新大选、宏观经济的稳定性、社会稳固基础以及地缘政治关系等都是影响委石油合作环境的重大因素。委内瑞拉石油政策已被政治化,财政支出压力可能倒逼油气政策调整,但委政府不会改变油气基本法律框架,可能会对油气税费和合作条件进行微调。委内瑞拉对外石油合作战略调整的目的是实现石油出口的地缘流向多元化和上下游外资参与合作伙伴的多元化。委内瑞拉视中国为重要的战略合作伙伴,但中委合作面临着委方政局变化的考验。委方政局一旦出现急剧变化,可能导致中委合作机制和方式的调整,但是,中委合作的大势不会发生改变,中国将继续成为委方石油出口多元化的战略目的国和投资来源国。
The current internal power dynamic in Venezuela is far from over,while Venezuela's oil cooperation environment remains complex and unstable.Sudden events or new elections anticipating power shifts,macro-economic and social stability,and geopolitical relations are all major factors affecting the cooperation environment in Venezuela.Venezuela's oil policy has been politicized;so,the pressure of fiscal expenditure can force oil & gas policy to adjust,but can't change the basic oil and gas legal framework,and leaves oil & gas taxes and cooperation conditions subject to possible minor adjustment.Venezuela is gearing its foreign oil cooperation toward increased income from a diversification of export markets and from foreigninvested upstream & downstream partners.Venezuela regards China as an important strategic partner;however,Sino-Venezuelan cooperation would face the test of any change in the political situation in Venezuela.Were the political situation in Venezuela to change dramatically,the mechanism or type of Sino-Venezuelan cooperation might change,but the general trend of cooperation would not,and China would continue becoming a strategic destination in Venezuela's oil export diversification and a source-country for investment.
出处
《国际石油经济》
2013年第1期8-17,211,共10页
International Petroleum Economics
