深度制裁下的伊朗政局走向

The political trend in Iran in light of tougher sanctions

当前,以美国为代表的西方国家对伊朗步步紧逼,伊朗所处的国内外环境日趋严峻。国内政治经济形势面临前所未有的挑战:石油收入下降、物资供应短缺、汇率大幅跳水、神权地位下降、派系斗争升级。从短期看,美以对伊朗动武的可能性不大,以压促变仍是首选,美国将力图通过制裁、分化内部推翻伊朗反美政权。但伊朗是神权国家,也是一个比较民主的国家,其体制对革命存在一定的免疫性,而且民众对政府不满,可通过公开抗议、游行或投票选举等方式来表达。目前,哈梅内伊执政地位仍较稳固,虽然体制内的派系斗争可能在总统大选临近时升级,但因大选发生革命的可能性不大。从长期看,如果西方经济制裁持续加码,伊朗国内经济、社会形势可能进一步恶化,改革将成为民心所向,原来的改革派可能与新的政治势力结合,从体制内改革转入体制外抗争,进而推动伊朗神权体制外的民主变革。

Under US leadership Western countries are pressing Iran and making domestic & international conditions harder for it.Iran is facing unprecedented domestic political and economic challenges:reduced oil income,materials shortages,currency depreciation,a waning of religious authority and escalation in factional infighting.The US is unlikely to take military action against Iran anytime soon,and pressure tactics are still the first choice;the US ultimately seeks to overthrow the anti-American regime by sanctions and internal fragmentation.Iran is both a theocracy and a democracy;so its system is relatively immune to revolution as people can voice opposition to the government by public protest,demonstrations or voting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remains in rather firm control of the government,and the upcoming general election makes it improbable that revolution would break out although factional infighting within the system may escalate in the meantime.In the long run,intensified economic sanctions by Western countries may so deteriorate domestic economicand social conditions in Iran as to prompt reforms to meet the common aspirations of the people.Existing reformers might unite with new political forces,and shift the dynamic from reform within the system to struggle outside the system,thus promoting democratic change from outside Iran's theocratic regime.