把握全球能源趋势 谋划中国油气发展——“2013年石油市场形势研讨会”综述

Understanding global energy trends as a basis for China's oil and gas development — Highlights of the 2013 Oil Market Outlook Symposium

由中国石油学会石油经济专业委员会和《国际石油经济》编辑部举办的"2013年石油市场形势研讨会"于2012年12月6-7日在北京太阳岛宾馆召开。本届研讨会围绕"世界与中国宏观经济态势"、"地缘政治格局与全球能源安全形势"、"石油市场供需前景及价格走势展望"及"天然气市场供需格局变化及趋势"四个议题,邀请16位资深专家,从多维度的观察视角,与来自政府机构、国内外石油公司、金融机构以及研究单位的约110位代表展开了深入的讨论。本刊撷取与会专家的核心观点,与读者分享他们关于宏观经济及石油市场前景的预判。

The Symposium was organized by the Petroleum Economics Committee of the Chinese Petroleum Society and the editorial department of International Petroleum Economics and held at Beijing's Sun Island Hotel on December 6th & 7th,2012.The symposium focused on four topics,namely 'domestic and international macroeconomic trends','geo-politics and global energy security','oil market supply and demand prospects and expected price movements',and 'natural gas market supply and demand outlook and changes',and reached the following conclusions:1) General world economic recovery was weak in 2012 and will remain in a complex adjustment period in 2013,with the outlook full of uncertainty.On the one hand developed economies generally face serious sovereign debt problems and are entering an expected slowgrowth period;on the other hand emerging economies,faced with the 'crisis situation' and a grim outlook,could still derive some advantage.Growth imbalance between regions will increase,with a greater tendency for the East's growth to be high and the West's to be low,leading to a change in global economic relationships that causes further structural rigidity in global political relations that intensifies conflicts.With a weakening in the traditional mechanisms driving economic growth,China's economy will say goodbye to high growth,and moderate recovery will be the trend;and deepening reform and seeking transformational economic and social improvement will be the way to recapture growth momentum.2) Global energy is part of the expected transition process where geopolitical factors become more prominent.Under the two major forces of low-carbon morality,and scientific and technological innovation and progress,energy transformation has become a historical necessity.U.S.energy independence and North America's rise as the 'new Middle East' is driving rapid fundamental change in global energy supply and demand;problems in the Middle East,especially Iraq's oil and gas supply prospects and the Iranian nuclear issue,will have a profound effect on international energy,particularly on supply to the Asia-Pacific region.With the outlook for its energy security generally looking grim,China needs to adopt a fresh outlook on energy security,and actively participate in the global energy race while at the sametime promoting establishment of mechanisms to safeguard multilateral coordination.China needs to directly face the three major transformational challenges of supply,emission reduction and integration,but has yet to devise a clear strategic plan.China should seize the opportunities presented by global energy transformation,have a decisive program to advance reform,and seek upgrading of its economic model through energy conversion.3) 2013 global oil supply and demand will be basically relaxed,with a weakening in the effect financial and political factors might have on oil prices and thus with oil prices remaining at current high levels in line with the interests of the major countries.Refined oil demand growth in China is expected to enter a slowdown phase,while the natural gas market goes through a period of rapid development and dependence on foreign oil and gas rises further.