摘要
2012年世界经济复苏乏力,增速放缓;石油供需宽松,油价高位宽幅震荡;天然气供需基本平衡,美欧亚三大市场价差进一步拉大;常规油气资源总量增长近两成,美国页岩气开发降温,页岩油渐成投资新宠;炼油和乙烯能力缓慢增长,清洁燃料升级步伐加快;国际大石油公司经营业绩下滑,资源国国家石油公司强化资源基础,新兴市场国家石油公司积极开展资产收购;资源国和新兴经济体能源政策有收有放;大国战略调整,全球地缘政治局势更趋复杂,部分资源国投资风险加大。展望2013年,全球经济增速基本与2012年持平;石油供需仍将宽松,受宽松货币政策和地缘政治影响,油价高位震荡,年均价与2012年水平相当;天然气供需总体平衡,美国气价继续回升,美欧亚三地价差有望收窄;油气勘探开发投资继续强劲增长,页岩油气开发仍是关注和争议焦点;欧美炼油业仍将调整,新增炼能集中在亚洲地区,世界乙烯总产能有望突破1.5亿吨/年。
2012 was marked by:sluggish recovery of the world economy as growth slackened;relaxed supply and demand for oil,and oil price fluctuation within a wide range at a high price level;basically balanced supply and demand for natural gas,with further widening in the price gap between the three major markets of North America,Europe and Asia;20% growth in the total volume of conventional oil & gas resources,a cooling down in the development of shale gas in the US and the emergence of shale oil as the new favorite of investment;slow growth in oil refining and ethylene capacity accompanied by accelerated upgrading to clean fuel;decline in operating performance of the international oil majors,strengthened resource base of the national oil companies in resource-rich countries and active asset acquisition by the national oil companies in emerging market countries;either tightening or relaxation in energy policies in resource-rich countries and emerging economies;and changes in energy strategy by major countries,increased complexity of global geopolitical situations and increased risk in investment by some resource-rich countries.2013 is expected to bring:global economic growth basically equal to 2012's;continued slack oil supply and demand;oil price fluctuation at a high price level,under the influence of eased monetary policy and geopolitics,at annual average prices similar to 2012's;balanced overall natural gas supply and demand,a continued rise in US natural gas prices,and a narrowing price gap between the three major markets of North America,Europe and Asia;continued strong growth in investment in oil & gas exploration and development,with shale oil & gas development still the focus of interest and contention;continued adjustment in the oil refining industry in Europe and North America,concentration in Asia of newly increased oil refining capacity,and total ethylene production capacity in excess of 150,000,000 tons per year.
出处
《国际石油经济》
2013年第1期58-64,共7页
International Petroleum Economics
