2012年国际油价走势分析及2013年预测

Trend and forecast of international oil prices in 2013

2012年国际油价总体呈宽幅震荡走势,布伦特原油年均价格为111.68美元/桶,再创历史新高;WTI原油年均价格为94.15美元/桶,略低于2011年。预计2013年世界经济增速将高于2012年,进而拉动世界石油需求增量略高于2012年;尽管北美非常规石油产量仍有望保持较快增长,但以沙特为主的欧佩克生产国大幅减产,以及南苏丹等中断的原油供应仍未恢复,预计2013年世界石油市场供应仍然偏紧;动荡的地缘政治形势亦将继续对国际油价构成较强支撑。预计2013年国际油价多数时间呈区间震荡走势,布伦特油价多数时间在100125美元/桶区间波动,年均价格高于2012年;WTI与布伦特原油负价差较2012年有所收窄,但布伦特与迪拜原油价差将有所拉宽。

In 2012 international oil prices fluctuated in a wide range.The annual average price of Brent crude was 111.68 dollars/barrel,an historic high;the annual average price of WTI crude was 94.15 dollars/barrel,slightly lower than in 2011.World economic growth is expected to be higher in 2013 than in 2012 and thus world oil demand growth to be bigger than in 2012;although unconventional oil production in North America might maintain rapid growth,OPEC producers,mainly Saudi Arabia,have greatly reduced production,while discontinued crude supply from Southern Sudan hasn't resumed,with world oil market supply thus expected to be tight in 2013;turbulent geopolitical situations will continue firmly driving international oil prices.For most of 2013 international oil prices are expected to be range-bound,the price of Brent crude fluctuating between 100-125 dollars/barrel,and the annual average price is expected to be higher than in 2012;the negative price difference between WTI crude and Brent crude will be narrower than in 2012 but the price difference between Brent crude and Dubai crude will widen.